Tag Archives: networks

Agent-Based Models in the Real World

thought_process1A recently published News Feature in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Robert Frederick, titled Agents of Influence, discusses the advancing state of agent-based models (ABMs) and their growing use to inform business and policy decisions. Businesses are employing ABMs to find new efficiencies in complex supply chains, and research efforts to create million-agent models of the economy may soon offer insight into the dynamics of our financial systems and broader economy.

What I like most about this article is that it illustrates how ABMs and complexity thinking are beginning to make their way out of academics and into the real world. A recent example is how Southwest Airlines used ABMs to find more efficient cargo shipping routes, saving the airline millions of dollars. ABMs as virtual laboratories are getting attention, too. The article describes how these models enable decision-makers to explore the consequences of particular business or policy decisions though a range of possible scenarios.

The message is clear: representing heterogeneous, distributed decision-making creates more realistic models, and is enabling researchers, businesses, and policy-makers to navigate complex systems like never before.

Importantly, Frederick does not shy away from the limitations of such models. What is gained in realism by using ABMs often comes at the cost of having to make numerous simplifying assumptions about human behavior. After all, an ABM is only as good as its description of human decision-making processes, which are notoriously unpredictable.

A great closing quote: “Ultimately, … none of these [ABMs] will offer iron-clad predictions, because they have to make simplifying assumptions about human behavior. The true test will be whether those assumptions, and the resulting outputs of the models, convince policymakers to act on their advice.”

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Friday Features

Welcome to Friday Features! Or something like that … name to be determined. Regardless of the name, here’s the deal: A couple times a month I will post a series of links – a sort of what’s “trending” in the world of agent-based modeling (ABM), land change science, and/or sustainability science. So, without further ado ….

Thought-provoking …

  • A Wired Science post about the legacy of medieval agricultural land-use patterns. An excellent example of how economic rationale manifests itself as striking land-use patterns. Source: Wired Science, Tim De Chant.
  • Another Wired Science post about land-use patterns. Clear evidence Brasíliafor the importance of institutions in shaping land-use patterns and the need to better model institutional agents – a common problem in the ABM world. Source: Wired Science, Betsy Mason.

Interesting academic articles …