Rural livelihoods are changing rapidly with economic globalization and global environmental change, which have direct impacts to environmental and socio-economic suitability. All too often the most vulnerable communities – those with the least resources – face the greatest transitions triggered by changing local and global conditions. Those communities also have livelihoods tied to the land, which may lead to environmental degradation and/or fail to support livelihoods in the future. We must advance our understanding of the causes and consequences of land-livelihood transitions in order to avoid maladapted responses that can lead to a loss of land-livelihood sustainability.
My colleagues and I recently published an article in PLoS ONE that explores these issues with an innovative, generalized agent-based model. Because human decision-making drives land-livelihood transitions, a process-level explanation of adaptive responses is needed to explore the conditions under which land-livelihood transitions emerge. In the short-term, this approach advances the use of agent-based virtual laboratories in sustainability research. In coming generations of this modeling approach, we hope to use model insights to devise effective policy interventions aimed at the decision-making level for supporting sustainability .
Posted in Agent-Based Modeling, Land-Use Change, Livelihoods, Sustainability
Tagged agent-based modeling, agricultural intensification, agriculture, behavior, cross-scale, decision-making, economic interactions, environmental suitability, food systems, land-use change, livelihoods, sustainability, virtual laboratories
Shoreline communities along the U.S. Atlantic Coast have a long history of enduring costly and widespread impacts from tropical storms and long-term erosion. Unfortunately, such impacts are likely to worsen with sea-level rise in the future. These impacts are unavoidable – but how we respond to them is up to us. In their new article titled “A coupled physical and economic model of the response of coastal real estate to climate risk,” recently published in Nature Climate Change, Drs. Dylan McNamara and Andrew Keeler address just this aspect of long-term coastline change.
Using coupled agent-based and coastal processes models, they explore the mechanisms underlying shoreline defense decisions in response to long-term sea-level rise and erosion. Those decisions in turn are dependent on property values and individual beliefs of potential impacts. A particularly innovative feature of their model is that collective mitigation actions are determined endogenously through an iterative referendum. Collective action problems become apparent as believers and non-believers of climate risk predictions must decide on community-level adaptation strategies.
The authors find that property owners that disregard predictions of climate change-induced coastal risks tend to be the ones that own property in the riskiest locations, and thus disproportionately receive public disaster assistance funds. In addition, the model is also able to estimate time before abandonment of coastal communities subject to a combination of sea-level rise and erosion.
Many research efforts into climate change adaptation emphasize the physical impacts of climate related hazards. However, this is only one – and arguably the less important – aspect of climate change adaptation. The fate of human-environment systems is largely determined by our decisions of how to respond to changing economic and environmental conditions.
This model gets it right. Explicit consideration of human decision-making, and its underlying motivations, is essential if we are to form realistic expectations of likely future states and formulate successful adaptation strategies.
I look forward to seeing future contributions from these authors!